On Cycle Elections and Multi-Racial Democracy
Research has demonstrated the wide-ranging negative consequences of low turnout off-cycle elections for racial and ethnic minorities. Studies have found that low turnout off-cycle elections are associated with a less representative electorate, less representation for people of color in office, and reduced spending on policies favored by racial and ethnic minority residents. Conversely, a range of research shows that moving to on-cycle elections can lead to a more inclusive and representative democracy. These gains occur across a range of different measures from participation in the voting process to the actions of government.
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Who Votes
The biggest and most well-defined effects are for the vote itself. We know that by making the vote easier, on-cycle elections draw in a wider range of citizens (Warshaw and de Benedictis-Kessner 2024, Marschall and Lappie 2018, Kogan et al 2018, Anzia 2014). Research also shows that the expanded electorate tends to be more representative of the underlying city population. In particular, on-cycle elections greatly increase the number of racial and ethnic minority voters (Hajnal et al 2022, Kogan et al 2018).
Voters in off-cycle elections tend to be whiter than the population as a whole, but the overrepresentation of White Americans declines substantially when elections moved on-cycle (Hajnal et al 2022, Kogan et al 2018). In California, the White share of the vote in city elections declined by roughly ten percentage points when city elections moved to the same date as presidential contests(Hajnal et al 2022). In other states in school board contests, the share of voters who were White declined by 6 percentage points (Kogan et al 2018). The big winners in on-cycle elections were Latino and Asian Americans, whose vote share grew markedly in both studies.
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Who Runs and Wins
Altering the makeup of the vote also impacts the candidate pool and the outcome of the vote. Research demonstrates that by bringing in more voters of color, the move to consolidated elections greatly increases the number of candidates of color and their chances of victory (Hajnal, Kogan, and Markarian 2024). In California, after cities were required to change to even year elections, Latino representation rose steeply. Indeed, even year elections appeared to eliminate all Latino underrepresentation on city councils in the cities that shifted (Hajnal, Kogan, and Markarian 2024). Research looking across the nation as a whole suggests that low voter turnout may be responsible for up to a third of the underrepresentation of Asian Americans on city councils and about a quarter of the underrepresentation of Latinos on city councils (Hajnal 2010). Analysis that simulated even turnout by racial and ethnic groups found that even turnout could alter the winner in 15 to 30 percent of local contests (Hajnal 2010, Hajnal and Trounstine 2005).
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Who Governs
All of this ultimately reduces inequalities in representation. When cities shift to on-cycle elections, studies show that the views of local leaders tend to more closely match the views of local residents (Dynes et al 2021, Hartney and Hayes 2021, Schaffner et al 2020). That is true at the city government level, where that the move to even year elections leads to the election of city government officials who are more in line with the preferences of the median resident (Schaffner et al 2020, Dynes et al 2021). Similar effects have been identified at the school district level where research shows that on-cycle elections reduce the ideological distance between school boards and district residents (Harney and Hayes 2021).
The consequences for people of color are particularly pronounced. Elected local leaders generally hold views that are closer to the views of White residents than they are to the views of Black or Latino residents. But moving to even year elections significantly reduces those gaps (Schaffner et al 2020). In particular, the gap between the views of Black and Latino residents and those of city council members is much smaller when cities hold their elections on the same day as federal contests.
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What Governments Do
We know less about how government actions in different policy areas are impacted by election timing. More research would be beneficial to help us learn the extent to which election dates effect a range of different policies. Nevertheless, a small number of studies have demonstrated the benefits of on-cycle elections for people of color. The best of this research has shown that and makes government policy more responsive to the median resident (Schaffner et al 2020, Dynes et al 2021). Just how much this moves policy in line with the interests of racial and ethnic minorities is less clear.
Another strand of research suggests that turnout does shape basic spending patterns. A study of over 1000 municipalities found that after controlling for a range of factors that impact local government spending, cities with higher turnout elections tend to enact policies that are likely to be viewed favorably by people of color and other less advantaged groups (Hajnal 2010). Specifically, higher turnout cities spend about 25 percent more of their budget on welfare, public housing, and other social services than do cities with lower turnout elections. Higher turnout also tends to lead to tax and debt policies that are more in line with racial and ethnic minority and lower class preferences.
These kinds of policy changes can reduce Black frustration with local government. Surveys reveal that African Americans are generally less happy than whites with the performance of their city governments. But those same surveys show that when local governments spend more on social welfare, Black dissatisfaction declines and racial gaps in satisfaction with local government are reduced (Hajnal and Trounstine 2013).