Research shows that aligning municipal elections with federal electoral contests dramatically increases turnout. Every one of the more than a dozen studies assessing the impact of on-cycle elections on voter turnout finds that election consolidation greatly increases turnout (Marschall and Lappie 2025, Warshaw and de Benedictis-Kessner 2024, Einstein et al 2024, Collins et al 2020, Schaffner et al 2020, Marschall and Lappie 2018, Kogan et al 2018, Anzia 2014, Holbrook and Weinschenk 2013, Hajnal 2010, Berry and Gerson 2010, Caren 2007, Hajnal and Lewis 2003, Wood 2002, Hajnal et al 2002). One of the first studies to assess election timing (Hajnal 2010) examined turnout in 1,691 municipalities across the country. That analysis demonstrated that after controlling for a range of other factors associated with voter turnout, aligning local elections with the general election for president led to a 29 percentage point increase in registered voter turnout. Aligning with midterm general elections led to a 13 percentage point increase in voter turnout.
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This peer-reviewed research also agrees that the effects of moving to on-cycle elections are large. Typically, these studies find that turnout is twice as higher (or higher) in elections concurrent with Presidential contests than it is in stand-alone local elections. That impact is evident in this figure from Hajnal and Green (2024). The figure shows turnout in the most recent mayoral election in the nation’s 50 largest cities. It compares turnout in mayoral elections held in odd years with those held on November 5th, 2024 – the same date as the presidential election.
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Election Timing and Turnout in the Nation’s 50 Largest Cities
Turnout is clearly higher in on-cycle elections. On average, only 26 percent of registered voters turned out to vote in the most recent mayoral election in off-cycle cities. Put more starkly, that means that three-quarters of the eligible electorate did not participate. Not only was turnout generally low in odd year elections, it was also consistently low. In only two of the 28 cities did a majority of registered voters get to the polls. At the opposite end of the spectrum, turnout fell below 10 percent in two Texas cities – Dallas and Fort Worth- and it hovered just above 10 percent in a third – Arlington.
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Voter turnout was markedly higher when mayoral elections were held on November 5th aligned with the presidential contest. In these on-cycle cities, the overwhelming majority of eligible voters participated. Turnout averaged 61 percent in the on-cycle cities. In all but one of these on-cycle cities, a majority of registered voters participated.
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Many of these studies find that combining local elections with statewide elections is generally the single most important change that municipalities can undertake to increase turnout (Marschall and Lappie 2018). Conversely, choosing to hold stand-alone local elections that do not coincide with the dates of statewide contests is the most effective tool for municipalities to reduce turnout.
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Studies that have examined election dates that are more or less aligned with statewide and federal elections, find turnout varies systematically across these different types of dates (Kogan et al 2018,Marschall and Lappie 2018, Hajnal and Louch 2003). This figure from California cities illustrates this pattern.
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Turnout and Timing in California Cities
Source: Zoltan L., Paul G. Lewis, and Hugh Louch. 2002. Municipal Elections in California:
Turnout, Timing, and Competition. San Francisco: Public Policy Institute of California
The figure shows that the more that local elections are tied to larger federal and statewide contests, the more turnout expands. Turnout of registered voters (the dark bars) is lowest in off-cycle elections and odd-year November contests where local contests are often the only offices on the ballot. Turnout grows significantly when local elections are coupled with Presidential primaries. It grows even more when they are held on the same date midterm gubernatorial elections. Finally, turnout peaks when local elections are held on the same date as presidential general elections. Importantly, each of these effects occurs after controlling for a range of institutional and demographic factors that drive turnout (Hajnal and Lewis 2003). The pattern is similar if one focuses on turnout of adult residents (the light bars). The study relied on a survey that was sent to every California municipality in the year 2000 but the pattern of results roughly matches published analysis of data from more recent California elections (Kogan et al 2018) and elsewhere (Hajnal and Green 2024).
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Finally, researchers can estimate the effects of election timing by tracking voter turnout in individual cities as they shift the dates of their elections. By looking at these ‘switchers’ and by measuring turnout in the same place over several elections, researchers can essentially control for factors that vary from city to city but that typically do not differ over time within a city. These studies reveal remarkably gains in turnout when cities moves from stand alone local contests to on-cycle elections (Hajnal and Green 2024). San Francisco is one of the nation’s most recent switchers. On November 2022, voters in the city passed Prop H moving elections for mayor and other local offices from odd-numbered years to November of presidential years. On November 5, 2024, the city held its first on-cycle mayoral election. The pattern in turnout is clear. Turnout was universally and consistently low when mayoral elections were held off-cycle. As the figure below reveals, turnout in the last six off-cycle elections fell somewhere between 46 percent in 2015 and 23 percent in 2009. Turnout jumped dramatically when the city held its first mayoral contest – some 78.5 percent of all registered voters in the city participated. Shifting to an on-cycle election more than doubled voter turnout in the city.
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Timing and Turnout in San Francisco
San Francisco is not unique. The same study found similar or even larger increases in turnout in Los Angles, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Baltimore, Austin, El Paso, and Corpus Christ when those cities moved to on-cycle elections (Hajnal and Green 2024). The pattern in other major cities that have recently shifted to on-cycle elections is no different. In Arizona, a state that recently passed legislation to move all city elections on-cycle, turnout grew by almost 250 percent in Chandler, Gilbert, Mesa, and Scottsdale after the four cities altered the timing of their local elections to coincide with statewide contests. Similarly, turnout soared in Los Angeles when that city shifted to November even year elections. Turnout jumped from an average of a quarter of a million voters in the city’s off-cycle contests to just under one million voters in 2022 in the city’s first ever November even year mayoral contest. Judging by the research, moving to consolidated elections is the single most important change cities can undertake to increase turnout.
Research shows that it is not just cities that can benefit from on-cycle elections. Studies of school board elections have shown that moving school district elections to November of even years can dramatically increase turnout (Kogan et al 2018, Allen and Plank 2005, Townley et al 1994). In the most recent study, voter turnout in every state was twice as high in districts that aligned their contests with Presidential elections than it was for off-cycle dates in the same states (Kogan et al 2018). For California that meant an 23 point increase in turnout. In Ohio that corresponded to a 36 jump. For Texas and Wisconsin, the increase was 24 and 35 points respectively. Although counties have increasingly moved to on-cycle elections, no studies that we are aware have assessed the effects of election timing on voter turnout in county legislative elections.