One of the main criticisms of on-cycle election dates is that moving to on-cycle elections will lower turnout because local elections will be placed further down the ballot resulting in voter fatigue and greater ballot drop off. The reality is far different. All of the evidence indicates that despite some voter roll-off, aligned elections greatly increase involvement in local elections.
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A small portion of voters who cast a ballot in presidential contests do drop off the ballot and end up not voting for some local level offices. Moreover, as ballots get longer, a few more voters drop-off (Augenblick and Nicholson 2016). This ballot drop-off is, however tiny. Typically, only about 2-10 percent of voters drop off the ballot in on-cycle elections (Citizens Union 2022). Critically, this drop-off is tiny in comparison to the dramatic gains in turnout associated with on-cycle local elections. The net result is a massive increase in turnout in local contests when they are held on the same day as federal elections.
On this point, it is important to understand that almost all of the studies that assess turnout in on- and off-cycle elections do so after taking into account ballot drop off. These studies essentially only count voters who actually voted in local contests. One of the earlier studies of timing and turnout looked at California elections (Hajnal et al 2002). In that study and in almost all that followed, the analysis looked only at votes in municipal contests. It compared the number of voters who voted in local elections when they were not held the same day as statewide elections to the number of voters who voted in the same type of local elections when they were held on the same day as statewide elections. In essence, these studies look at local election turnout regardless of where it falls on the ballot. Every one of these studies of election timing finds that – after taking into account drop-off – turnout increases dramatically in on-cycle contests (Warshaw and de Benedictis-Kessner 2024, Einstein et al 2024, Collins et al 2020, Schaffner et al 2020, Marschall and Lappie 2018, Kogan et al 2018, Anzia 2014, Holbrook and Weinschenk 2013, Hajnal 2010, Berry and Gerson 2010, Caren 2007, Hajnal and Lewis 2003, Wood 2002, Hajnal et al 2002).
In short, the overall vote gains from moving elections on-cycle far exceed the votes lost to ballot drop-off. We can see this more clearly in individual cities that have made the move to on-cycle elections. In Phoenix, a recent switcher, the ballot drop-off rate increased from 2.23% in 2011 and 0.36% in 2015 in that city’s last to off-cycle contests to 13.6% in 2020 in the city’s first on-cycle election. However, the number of total voters for the lowest ballot position was still an order of magnitude greater when elections were held on-cycle. In the same Phoenix example, the turnout for a proposition in 2020 was 434% higher than the turnout for a proposition in 2015 (Citizens Union 2022). Other cities that have switched from off-cycle to on-cycle elections show similar trends (Citizens Union 2022).
On this point, it is also important to note that ballot drop-off does not appear to impact one group more than other groups. Analysis by Hajnal and his colleagues (2022) found that rates of roll-off were not related to the race, age, or partisanship of voters. There was also no link between city demographics and city roll off rates.